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After 2037, Social Security can only pay ¾ of benefits owed. Use FPA's Predictor Tool to learn what this means to you.


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Assumptions Used to Generate Predictions

To create a tool that speaks to as broad a group as possible, FPA crafted age ranges and income levels. However, when estimating actual distributions and taxes, specific numbers needed to be used. Please see the below assumptions that were used to generate predictions:

Ages

 

Range

Actual Age Used

0–9

5

10–19

15

20s

25

30s

35

40s

45

50s

55

60s

65


Income

 

Range

Actual Used

0–$30K

$18,756

$30K–$50K

$41,680

$50K–$90K

$80,000

$90K +

$171,000*

 

* The maximum earning cap for Social Security is $106,800. This means that for every dollar earned over $106,800, Social Security payroll taxes are not paid and additional distributions are not received. 

For example, this means that someone making $107,000 and $250,000 pay the same amount of payroll tax and receive the same amount of Social Security distributions. The only fix that makes a difference in these two areas is the "Raise Earnings Cap" fix, where the taxable income is raised to $171,000. This means that both distributions and taxes are increased under this fix.

Distribution Valuation

All distributions are calculated with an assumption that the individual begins receiving distributions at 65 years of age. Figures noted are the initial benefit given upon year of retirement. This means that if the trust fund is allowed to be depleted, that these distributions could become lower as the individual ages and Social Security is less able to meet its obligations. All distributions are shown in today's dollars so that distributions could easily be compared across generations.     

Future Generations

To help show the generational impact of not fixing Social Security, the system is set to auto generate a generation. This generation is 20 years younger than the youngest generation chosen (either you or your choice of kids/grandkids).

Children's/Future Generations Income

An assumption was made that the income chosen by "you" was the level used for children and future generations.

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